My friend Chad at CCK thinks that "the Republican presidential field is abysmal." Correct for the usual Clean Cut hyperbole, and maybe he's right. It's scarcely abysmal but it isn't anything to cheer about. On the other hand, the Republican field is polling a lot better than the Democratic field. The recent Times poll and the Rasmussen poll have Giuliani beating Clinton by 9% and 8% respectively. See RealClearPolitics. The Times poll has McCain beating Ms. Clinton by 6%. Giuliani beats Obama in several polls by 4 or 5%, though only by one point in the Times poll. McCain is is barely ahead of Obama in the polls.
Now no one thinks that these polls, more than a year and a half out, predict anything. They only tell us something about how things stand now. But the Republican Party is, by all indications, in a very weak state. So what does it tell us that their "abysmal" field is running well ahead of the Democratic front runner, and a little ahead of the Democratic second? It is unlikely, despite the pretensions of Congressional Democrats, that American troops will be out of Iraq before November 2008. That fact may continue to be a drag on Republican contenders. On the other hand, the Democrats won't be able to run against Bush anymore. It would be wishful thinking on the Democrat's part to imagine that the Republican position is going to get worse than it is now.
Of the four front runners, only two, Ms. Clinton and Mr. McCain, have impressive credentials. McCain has been a major figure in national politics and in the Republican Senatorial Caucus for decades. Ms. Clinton was a figure of national stature before she ran for Senate in New York, a fact that is obviously both her greatest strength and her greatest, perhaps fatal, weakness. I suppose that, by putting her name recognition where her mouth was and securing a Senate seat she has earned her current position.
Rudy Giuliani is more of a stretch. If Hilliary Clinton made the most of marrying a very entertaining guy, Rudy made the most of being mayor of New York City when it hosted America's worst terrorist attack. By all accounts he did a bang up job in that crisis. That is not small potatoes. By all accounts he did a bang up job governing an all but ungovernable city, and one that has stood for America in a lot of common culture. Again, that is significant; but does it suggest fitness for the Presidency?
Barack Obama has nothing. Well, nothing other than a handsome face, a voice rendered smooth and sexy by cigarettes, and a better promise to be America's first Black President than Bill Clinton had, despite Toni Morrison's award. Yet Obama, who runs second to Ms. Clinton among Democrats, runs better against Republicans than she does.
If you ask me, as a political scientist, what all this means, I would adopt a thoughtful pose, pause for a bit, and then say: "beats me." But to put it mildly, Democrats have as much reason to be disturbed by the current Presidential race as Republicans.
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