Sen. Tim Johnson's (D-S.D.) slow but steady recovery from a stroke has done no
apparent political damage to his 2008 re-election hopes. But it has hamstrung
Republican efforts to recruit a top-tier challenger and put a severe damper on
GOP fundraising for what was expected to be one of the marquee races of the 2008
cycle.
Republicans have been leery of launching even the mildest
rhetorical attack against Johnson since he was hospitalized Dec. 13, and they
acknowledge that his illness temporarily has frozen any effort to oust him.
Meanwhile, Johnson, with the help of fellow Senate Democrats, has
continued to build his war chest, and in light of a healthy prognosis by
doctors, recently reignited his campaign operation.
"Make no mistake,
it does handicap Republican candidates," said potential Johnson challenger
Dusty Johnson (R), the elected chairman of the South Dakota Public Utilities
Commission, who is not related to the Senator. "Politically, things are very
much on hold."
Dusty Johnson's dilemma is a near perfect example of
the uncomfortable situation Sen. Johnson's illness has put Republicans in as
they try to prepare for what should be one of their best Senate pickup
opportunities of the 2008 cycle.
After popular Gov. Mike Rounds (R),
Dusty Johnson is one of the first individuals mentioned when Republican
operatives list potential candidates who could give Sen. Johnson a serious
challenge. But Dusty Johnson is deferring to Rounds, who, in turn, appears to be
holding off a formal decision on running pending a clearer picture of Sen.
Johnson's plans.
Both Democratic and Republican observers of South
Dakota politics believe Rounds, elected to a second term in November, would run
only if Johnson retires.
National Republican Senatorial Committee
Chairman John Ensign (Nev.), referring to Rounds as his first choice to either
challenge Sen. Johnson or run for an open seat, acknowledged that Sen.
Johnson's illness momentarily has disabled Republican plans to target him.
Meanwhile, Sen. Max Baucus (D-Mont.) recently formed a joint fundraising
committee with Sen. Johnson, with the Senator's other colleagues also pitching
in on that front.
"That was one of our top chances for a pickup and
still remains one of our top chances for a pickup," Ensign said, before
adding: "It's delicate. It's delicate right now, and so you have to be
sensitive to, you know, the personal needs of that family."
Sen.
Johnson, 60, is now out of the hospital and in a private rehabilitation
facility. He is meeting regularly with his chief of staff and hiring campaign
aides. Johnson spokeswoman Julianne Fisher, who stated in January that the
Senator's political future is on hold, said Tuesday that his re-election
effort is now moving forward.
But for Republicans, the waiting game
continues, in large part because it still remains politically unseemly to target
the Democratic incumbent, particularly in South Dakota.
South Dakota
is a small state, where everybody tends to know everybody and civility in
political campaigns still reigns despite the hard-fought nature of Senate races
in 2002 and 2004, respectively, that saw now-Sen. John Thune (R) barely lose to
Sen. Johnson before beating then-Minority Leader Tom Daschle (D) by a hair two
years later.
In fact, Dusty Johnson, 30, though clearly a partisan
Republican who served in the Rounds administration and credits the governor for
being an invaluable supporter, described himself as a former classmate and
personal friend of Sen. Johnson's son, Brendan. These kinds of cross-party
personal relationships exist throughout the state and have motivated many
Republicans to stay silent on next year's race, other than to highlight their
wish that Sen. Johnson make a full recovery.
"I'm always more than a
little uncomfortable thinking about my political future when the future health
of Sen. Johnson is still in question," Dusty Johnson said. "We all respect
him a great deal. Whether Republicans or Democrats, most South Dakotans have
probably voted for him at some point, at least once or twice."
South
Dakota leans Republican -- even more so in presidential years, giving the
Senate GOP a rare opportunity to go on the offensive in a year that finds the
party defending 21 seats, compared with just 12 for the Democrats. But Johnson,
who is relatively popular and closed 2006 with $629,000 in cash on hand, already
was well positioned to wage a tough re-election race before his illness
indefinitely delayed the Republican effort.
Ensign, though acknowledging
that major moves to target Johnson remain grounded, insisted in an interview
late last week that Republicans are doing as much as they can within the bounds
of what is acceptable politically. To prepare for Johnson's presumed recovery,
the NRSC is trying to woo Rounds into the race, while talking with other
candidates seen as viable challengers.
But while Ensign emphasized that
the NRSC is doing what it can, South Dakota Republicans stressed that there is
little appetite to engage in any political activity for the Senate race absent a
full recovery by Johnson or a decision by him to forgo re-election.
"It puts us in an awkward position," said one Republican operative
in South Dakota. "It's hard to pick on the sick guy."
Besides
Rounds and Dusty Johnson, potential candidates on the NRSC's radar include
Sioux Falls businessman and former Lt. Gov. Steve Kirby, who is close to Thune
and seen as someone who potentially could bankroll his own campaign; state
Senate Majority Leader Dave Knudson; and current Lt. Gov. Dennis Daugaard.
Should Johnson retire, Rep. Stephanie Herseth, who runs statewide as
South Dakota's lone House Member, is seen as likely to replace him as the
Democratic Senate candidate, although her office continues to decline to comment
on the matter other than to say she looks forward to helping the Senator win in
2008.
Some Republicans believe they may not be able to launch an
aggressive campaign for Johnson's seat until late this year but say that does
not automatically spell disaster for them in 2008.
These Republicans
note that President Bush garnered 60 percent of the vote in South Dakota in 2000
and 2004, giving the GOP a natural advantage there. It is the Democratic
candidate, whether Johnson, Herseth or another individual, who stands to
suffer in November 2008 by not being able to begin a concerted campaign for the
seat early in the cycle, some GOP strategists argue.
"I don't think
it's dire yet for Republicans," said one GOP operative with South Dakota
experience.
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