Yesterday I argued that conservatism as a governing principle is still very strong despite the Republican's midterm loss of both chambers of Congress. The issue now is what can Republicans do to recapture the majority in 2008? Why did voters reject the GOP after twelve years in power? I'll offer thoughts on three areas.
1. Principles
In all of the blog reactions, television, and radio programs I've read or listened to, the most common thread is that Republicans have forgotten why they were elected in the first place. The Reagan Revolution of the 1980s and the 1994 Contract with America brought reform. Voters were fed up with a Congress that passed laws they refused to apply to themselves, of a federal government that kept growing, and a perception of the legislature as a corrupt organization moving at the whim of lobbyist. Sound familiar?
For a time Republicans acted on their manifesto for change. Before Newt Gingrich left office, Republicans kept spending under control and carried through procedural reforms intended on weeding out corruption. The election of George W. Bush changed this, who has always been less conservative than his critics understand. Big-government conservatism, an issue I've touched on before, was implemented. Spending went through the roof and Republicans adopted the same earmark routine that locked Democrats into power for forty years. Voters grew disenchanted and coupled with a difficult war, lost confidence in Republicans to lead and elected Democrats and conservative Democrats to replace them.
We can see the effect: once government begins to grow, the large amounts of money required to run big government attracts special interests and lobbyists, which provides a seedbed for corruption. A CNN poll in October showed a majority of voters felt the government tries to do too much, and only one third think the government should do more. Big government and the sources required for it generate corruption. There's a reason Democrats recruited center-right candidates.
2. Leadership
Much of this blends with principles, but is still important to consider. Republicans refused to act as the majority party for most of their tenure under the Bush administration. They dropped the ball on several issues, including a once-in-a-generation to reform Social Security and health care along free-market principles.
It's time for some fresh ideas, and we're seeing this happen. Donald Rumsfeld, Ken Mehlmen, and Dennis Hastert have all resigned and a younger generation is stepping forward. Mike Pence of Indiana has declared his intent to become minority leader, and John Shadegg of Arizona is seeking a number of jobs as whip. Others have tried to put their ideas above incumbency. The GOP's willingness to accept new leadership will indicate what they've learned from last week.
Machiavelli pointed out long ago that power corrupts, and too many Republicans were seduced by power and forgot why the voters sent them to Washington.
3. War
Was the war a major issue in the election? If Iraq is such a major problem, then how does one explain why Ned
Lamont lost 60-40 in blue Connecticut? And why are McCain and
Guiliani, two of the biggest hawks in the country, leading in the straw
polls for 2008? The war is certainly important: we've been in Iraq for five years and have made significant progress, but perhaps its time to "double down," as William J. Stuntz
argues. The war will have significant repercussions for Republicans, to be sure. I expect the war to play a bigger role in 2008 than it did last Tuesday. The President needs to be more forceful and vocal about the imporance of the war. Don't leave it only to bloggers and talk show hosts to explain.
It would also help if the President explained more clearly the plan for Iraq and the War on Terror. Where will the United States be in five years? Ten? What sort of progress are we making? Most of the news I read about the War on Terror comes from six sources, all blogs. If it were not for them, it would be hard to find news of progress in the MSM or in the words of President Bush. In terms of the midterm elections, the war was a third tier concern. I think above all it was leadership and corruption that decided the election.
What To Do
So how can Republicans return to power? Above all, return to the principles of limited federal government, strong national defense, and support of private property. Second, adopt new leadership that will bring fresh ideas to the table. Lastly, assure the American people of the importance of this war at every chance one has. If the Republicans wish to regain the majority, they needs to group around their principles. Fighting the big-government solutions of the liberals, keeping the nation strong, and reducing the government's power in intrusion of private property will resonate in 2008.
In concluding the Contract with America, the authors promised: "If we break this contract, throw us out." That time had come. Now lets fix it.
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