South Dakota Politics

Tom Daschle's Chances

I was interviewed today by the Rapid City Journal concerning Tom Daschle's chance of success should he choose to run for president.  In sum, I said Daschle is running long odds, but the more I think about it that might be wrong.  Here is my objective position as a political analyst, not my opinion as someone who is politically in opposition to Tom Daschle.  I am willing to hear counter theories. Understand that what I said inthe interview (and what I say here) makes big assumptions about who is running on the Democratic side in 2008. I assume Hillary Clinton, John Kerry, Al Gore, Mark Warner, Russ Feingold, and Phil Bredesen are running.  Here is what I essentially said to the RCJ.

1. I think Daschle would accept the VP spot if offered, but he can't say that because he wants to seem interested in the big job, not playing second banana.  That's the smart move on his part.  I do doubt he'd take a cabinet post if offered. 
2. The contest is for the "un-Hillary" candidate, just in case Sen. Clinton stumbles.  On the right you have Warner and Bredesen who can credibly claim that only a Southern moderate can win for the Democrats. 
3. Daschle appears to be positioning himself to the left of Clinton.  That area is a bit crowded, but each candidate has his flaws.  Gore and Kerry, of course, had their shot and blew it (although Gore will argue he didn't really blow it, the Supreme Court did).  Daschle, of course, lost his Senate seat.  Feingold is a solid candidate from an electorally important state (Wisconsin), but he can't raise money the way Daschle can (Daschle should announce early before people like Warner and Clinton start sucking up the money).  Kerry is the weakest of these candidates, but I can't decide which of the others is the strongest.  I think Daschle has as good a claim as any.
4. I think Daschle has as good a shot as anyone at being the left-wing alternative to Hillary Clinton.  But Clinton is still the strong favorite, and if she gets a serious challenge it will more likely come from the right than the left.  I think the Democratic Party will have spent enough time in the wilderness that they will be unwilling to take a chance on an ideologically pure candidate in favor of an "electable" one.
Additional thoughts not in the interview:
5.Daschle can claim the martyr mantle.  As Senate leader he fought George W. Bush and sacrificed his Senate seat for it.  That appeals to many in the Democratic Party.  And he was an effective leader, although his party lost seats under his watch in 2002 and 2004.  Also, the governors here (Warner and Bredesen) will point out that he is "inside Washington" while they are outside. 
6. If nominated Daschle is a good enough politician that he might get away with seamlessly moderating previous left-wing positions. 
7. It is my position that if the Democrats nominate Warner or Bredesen, they waltz to victory.  If they nominate anyone else we have a blood bath.  This says more about the weakness of the potential Republican field than the strength of the Democrats. 

I am not a Daschle supporter, but I have a lot of respect for him as a politician.  I wouldn't sell him short (which is not a comment on Tom Daschle's height).  Again, feel free to pass along comments. 

Up Northern Wolves!

I would be remiss if I did not mention that the Northern State University Wolves Men's Basketball team has made it to the "Sweet 16" of the Division II tournament.  Unfortunately they face their archrivals, Winona State from Minnesota, in the round of 16.  Winona, the #1 team in the region, has defeated the Wolves three times already this year.  But as they say, fourth time is a charm.  Whatever the outcome, this is a fine team that has done South Dakota proud.  One thing about NSU Men's Basketball, they are exceeded in their basketball skills only by the quality of men on the team.  Go Wolves!  Oh, and maybe Quentin can write in and tell us how the USD men are doing. 

RCJ

More speculation about Daschle's presidential bid:

Former South Dakota Sen. Tom Daschle is busy raising funds and campaigning for Democratic candidates for Congress and governor’s chairs nationwide, but he also hinted again during the weekend at a future campaign for himself.

It might be for the presidency.

Daschle further fueled the already simmering fires of speculation after a political gathering in Aberdeen, when he told the Associated Press that he hadn’t ruled out a run for the presidency and expected to make a decision on that issue by the end of the year.

“I’m encouraged by the strong support many people have voiced for my candidacy around the country and in South Dakota. I’ll make a decision at some point later on this year,” he said.

Hildebrand Targeting "Conservative Extremists"

The Hildebrand Boys are targeting "conservative extremists" this fall in South Dakota and hope to take back the South Dakota Senate for the Democrats, according to the Rapid City Journal:

Opponents of the controversial ban of almost all abortions that was approved by the state Legislature and signed by Gov. Mike Rounds have started recruiting candidates to challenge lawmakers who voted for the bill.

Steve Hildebrand, a Sioux Falls political consultant and organizer of the public-issues group Common Sense South Dakota, said the goal of the candidate-recruitment effort was to challenge incumbents whom the group considers to be conservative extremists. But the focus is on HB1215, which would allow abortions only when needed to save the pregnant woman’s life.

“Legislative candidates are now emerging as a result of 1215 and extremist positions by the Legislature on other issues,” Hildebrand said. “We have some exceptional candidates.”

...

Hildebrand said the push for candidates, which currently is focused on the 35-member Senate, will go statewide, including the heavily Republican Rapid City area.

“I am confident that we will get good candidates in the Black Hills and Rapid City,” he said.

Read the whole thing.

Hollywood Left

New York Daily News: A furious George hits gutless Dems

Early Returns on the Robert's Court

Most of the attention on Bush's Supreme Court nominees naturally focused on the ideological weight they would bring to the Court.  Only once did the competence of a nominee become an issue (at least for conservatives), and it resulted in the annulment of the Harriet Meyers nomination.  To all appearances, Bush ended up putting two men on the Court whose intelligence and judicial virtue ranks far above that of most judges on the Court, today or in the past. 

Terry Eastland has this about John Roberts at the helm of the Court.

JOHN ROBERTS HAS SAT IN the center seat of the Supreme Court a mere five months. Conventional wisdom holds that it takes four or five years for a new justice to hit his stride. Even so, Roberts's work stands out in a Washington whose daily manufacture, it seems, is another fight between an irresponsible Congress and a president with cratering job-approval numbers. If you want to see excellence in government, consider the brief tenure of our new chief justice.

Under Roberts the Court has decided 39 cases. Roberts himself has written three opinions. Each was unanimous, the most recent being last week's opinion upholding the access of military recruiters to college campuses (elsewhere in this issue). Each is well-written. Concision and clarity distinguish the opinions. Sentences do not wander about, nor fatten from authorial pomposity. Arguments are fairly addressed, distinctions cleanly drawn, decisions plainly stated. Nor has Roberts retired the dry humor on display during his hearings. The chief justice, and not his clerks, is clearly in charge of his own prose. Finally, and not a small point: His opinions are enormously persuasive.

The rest of Eastland's piece looks at Robert's first written opinions.  Its well worth reading. 

Gannett

Gannett Corporation, the large company that owns over one-hundred newspapers including the Argus Leader, is competing against McClatchey Company to buy Knight Ridder Inc., the nation's second-largest newspaper chain:

McClatchy has won high marks for its journalism compared with the other bidders and possible bidders. A consortium of private equity firms led by Thomas H. Lee Partners of New York with limited newspaper experience is said to have made an all-cash bid for slightly less than McClatchy has offered. A partnership between Gannett Co., publisher of USA Today, and Denver-based MediaNews Group -- two companies known for squeezing costs at their newspapers -- is also believed to either have submitted a bid or still be considering one.

"I'm rooting for McClatchy because it's practically the last [newspaper] chain that doesn't strike dread and disgust in my heart," said Judy Bolch, professor at the University of Missouri School of Journalism and former managing editor of the News & Observer in Raleigh, N.C., which is owned by McClatchy.

UPDATE:  The New York Times is reporting that Knight Ridder Inc. has agreed to sell to McClatchy for $4.5 billion:

Knight Ridder, the second-largest newspaper company in the United States, agreed Sunday night to sell itself for about $4.5 billion in cash and stock to the McClatchy Company, a publisher half its size, according to people involved in the negotiations.

The deal, which is expected to be announced on Monday, comes as the newspaper industry is gripped by uncertainty. Readers have begun to drift away from printed newspapers as their Web sites have experienced sharp gains in use.

The sale may help assuage some investors who are nervous about the values of newspaper companies, however, because Knight Ridder commanded a premium of about 25 percent for its shares from the time it put itself up for sale in November under pressure from shareholders who were unhappy with performance of its stock.

Still, McClatchy, which is based in Sacramento and publishes The Sacramento Bee and The Star Tribune in Minneapolis, among others, was the only major newspaper company to submit a final bid for Knight Ridder, publisher of 32 daily newspapers, including such venerable papers as The Miami Herald, The Philadelphia Inquirer and The San Jose Mercury News.

While Knight Ridder attracted interest from some big publishers, including Gannett, the largest chain in the United States, most major newspaper companies passed on the auction entirely, underscoring just how unsettled the biggest players are about their own business.

UPDATE II:  More from the Washington Post:

The McClatchy Company, a medium-sized California based newspaper publisher, announced today that it was acquiring Knight Ridder, one of the nation's largest publishing chains.

...

The acquisition will make McClatchy the second largest chain in the country, after Gannett. The new giant will have 32 daily newspapers, 50 non-dailies and a combined daily circulation of 3.2 million.

McClatchy currently operates the Star Tribune in Minneapolis, the Sacramento Bee and the Fresno Bee, among other papers.

Knight Ridder owns, among other papers, the Miami Herald, the Kansas City Star, the Fort Worth Star-Telegram and the Charlotte Observer.

Photo Blogging: Big Bend

My other half and I had a great time camping down at Big Bend National Park.  If anyone gets the chance to go, I would highly recommend it - especially if you're a fan of hiking.  The park is unlike any other: It's huge (over 800,000 acres) so you spend a lot of time driving to different locations.  However, along the way are exhibit areas that you can stop at that explain animals, plants, and mountain/land formations.  The camp also encourages you to go ahead and explore the desert at your whim, which is usually restricted at other national parks.  We also visited Fort Davis, an old restored frontier fort about three hours away from camp, and Presidio (a border town, again two hours away) and crossed briefly into the Mexican town of Ojinaga while at Presidio.

NOTE:  If the site loads too slowly because of the pictures, email us and I'll link to the photos instead.  Click to enlarge the photos.

Our campsite - the Rio Grande Village - was located just along the Rio Grande.  Hiking down into Boquillas Canyon, I took this shot of the Rio Grande.  Notice how green it is around water compared to the rest of the landscape.


This is a javelina (known outside of West Texas as a peccary.  Note this is a Spanish word, so the "j" is pronounced as an "h").   These things would wander around the campsite, so all food was kept in large metal boxes (see below) and if you left for the day you had to collapse your tent.  Otherwise, they would tear into the tent seeking food.  On our last morning at the camp, about eight of them came wandering through our site.


Do you see the Indian in the mountain?  This is Alsate's profile: imagine him laying down with his head in profile (the high peak is his nose, to the right is the forehead and the left is the mouth, and the small formation to the left is his hands folded on his chest).  See this for the legend behind the mountain formation.


The Paisano - otherwise known as the roadrunner.  Paisano is a Spanish word meaning countryman or peasant, and is used throughout the American southwest as a nickname for the bird.  This one is posing for my snapshot.  The tan boxes in the background are what your food was kept in.


This is on a hike trail through Santa Elena Canyon, the most magnificant canyon in the park.  The river you see is the Rio Grande.


This is me inside of Tuff Canyon, the deepest dry canyon in the park.


Tall Cottonwood trees - a sure sign of water in the desert.  This is Dugout Wells, once considered the "cultural center" of Big Bend.  The windmill here continues to pump water, which results in this "oasis" with lots of wildlife.

Unfortunately, we didn't get to hike through the Chisos Mountains area.  There was a terrible wind storm on Wednesday night that knocked down a power line in the Chisos campground and sparked a fire.  The entire Chisos area was evacuated and the road through the area closed.

SD Legislature = Taliban

Rounds v. Wiese/Billion

David Kranz is reporting this morning that Governor Rounds could face two opponents this fall, Dennis Wiese or Jack Billion:

Wiese for Governor?

First there was Ron Volesky. Then there was no one. Then Jack Billion. Now Dennis Wiese, former president of the South Dakota Farmers Union, is exploring a gubernatorial bid on the Democratic Party ticket.

Daschle for President

Jason just mentioned the story about Tom Daschle running for president.  I found this section notable:

He said President Bush and Republicans have overemphasized the importance of the war on terror. America is no safer now than it was before the Iraq war, Daschle said, accusing the GOP of spreading a "message of fear."

"They want to scare us into voting for them," Daschle said.

Now that's leadership for you.  Republicans "overemphasized the war on terror."  If you just bury your head under the covers then the bad men go away.  Just remember this: the only reason you, dear reader, are not dead isn't because Osama Bin Laden doesn't want you dead, it's because he lacks the capability. This is an argument Abraham Lincoln used to call a "lullaby."  Just go to sleep and ignore that thing which is so disturbing.  It is also laughable that the party that has for decades run on "vote for Republicans and your children will starve" frets about the politics of fear. 

POTUS Daschle?

The Aberdeen American News is reporting that Tom Daschle has stated he's "not done yet" when it comes to politics and is "considering a presidential bid."

RCP

Real Clear Politics has been greatly redesigned and has added some great new features.  John McIntyre and Tom Bevan explain in a "Note to readers."