It is the habit of both parties, when they lose an election, to try to spin the result. We didn't really lose because we beat the point spread. We didn't really lose because the other side cheated and ran perfidious campaign commercials, or used witchcraft to manipulate the voting machines. You won't see this kind of cowardice at SDP, or at least not from this blogger. I don't expect either party to be more scrupulous than is customary, nor would I rule out electoral shenanigans by either side. I just don't think that such things will matter much. What really matters is larger shifts of voters, and that is the way it is supposed to be. So let me bite the bullet in advance: if the Democrats capture the House or, more dramatically, both Houses of Congress, it will be because the people, just now, love their party more than they love the Republicans. If the Democrats win, then I say they won fair and square.
I am always looking for my own Ouija board: some magically device that is really reliable in predicting the outcome. For a long time I relied on the Weekly Reader poll, which accurately predicted the winner in every Presidential election. Until 1992, that is. Bush 41 won the kids, but lost the adults. Another Ouija board that has a good record is Tradesports.com. Here people bet on the outcome, and right now it doesn't look good for the GOP. Larry Kudlow in Real Clear Politics:
The Senate still looks secure with the Senate GOP 2006 contract at 78 bid (think 78 percent), but that is down about 5 percentage points in the past week or so. Meanwhile the House GOP 2006 contract has fallen four points to 38 bid. This suggests only a 38 percent chance of a Republican hold in the House.
That should depress any Republican who takes his witchcraft seriously. On the other hand, there is this from Jed Babbin (deputy undersecretary of defense in the George H.W. Bush administration) also in RCP.
It may be that the Republicans get whacked in sixty-one days, but if momentum shifts mean anything, the past few weeks haven't been kind to the Dems. The Israeli war against Hizballah terrorists in Lebanon drove home the reality of the war to every American. But the Ned Lamont moment energized the Republicans' base, and combined with the arrests of the London plotters measurably increased Republican energy. There was no good news for the Dems.
About two weeks ago, a Gallup poll showed that the Dems' lead (more than a dozen points) in national polls had disappeared. This was a poll of 1,000 adults, not likely voters. If only likely voters had been polled, the Dem advantage would probably have morphed into a small Republican lead. This, despite bad news from Iraq, high gasoline prices and voter disgust with Congress. Why? Because world and national news is trumping small issues the Dems want to campaign on.
This, of course, is not divination, but a counter-spell to ward off evil. Babbin invokes history and the name of Ronald Reagan. Of course this may work, if the Republicans take Babbin's advice. Or maybe even if they don't. One thing a political scientist knows is that he doesn't know what will happen, even if . . . . Having positioned myself courageously to lose, I am in a splendid position to crow if my party wins. Of course, if it doesn't, I reserve the right to disown this post, whine about how the other side conducted themselves, and make all sorts of excuses.
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