James Fallows is no friend of conservatives, nor are the editors of the Atlantic Monthly who put Fallow's article "Declaring Victory" on the magazine's cover. You need a subscription to view its contents. Fallows interviewed sixty experts on terrorism and national security. Here is a sample:
Any assessment of the world five years after 9/11 begins with the damage inflicted on “Al-Qaeda Central"—the organization led by bin Laden and al-Zawahiri that, from the late 1990s onward, both inspired and organized the worldwide anti-American campaign. “Their command structure is gone, their Afghan sanctuary is gone, their ability to move around and hold meetings is gone, their financial and communications networks have been hit hard,” says Seth Stodder, a former official in the Department of Homeland Security (DHS).
David Kilcullen, an Australian army officer [who] commanded counter-insurgency units in East Timor, [and who] recently served as an adviser in the Pentagon and is now a senior adviser on counterterrorism at the State Department . . . says, “The al-Qaeda that existed in 2001 simply no longer exists. In 2001 it was a relatively centralized organization, with a planning hub, a propaganda hub, a leadership team, all within a narrow geographic area. All that is gone, because we destroyed it.” Where bin Laden’s central leadership team could once wire money around the world using normal bank networks, it now must rely on couriers with vests full of cash. (I heard this point frequently in interviews, weeks before the controversial news stories revealing that the U.S. government had in fact been tracking international bank transfers. Everyone I spoke with assumed that some sort of tracking was firmly in place—and that the commanders of al-Qaeda had changed their behavior in a way that showed they were aware of it as well.) Where bin Laden’s network could once use satellite phones and the Internet for communication, it now has to avoid most forms of electronic communication, which leave an electronic trail back to the user. Bin Laden and al-Zawahiri now send information out through videotapes and via operatives in Internet chat rooms. “The Internet is all well and good, but it’s not like meeting face to face or conducting training,” says Peter Bergen, author of The Osama bin Laden I Know. “Their reliance on it is a sign of their weakness.” [My emphasis].
Or consider how someone might brief Osama on his current situation.
The Taliban were dispersed, and al-Qaeda’s training camps in Afghanistan were dismantled.” Al-Qaeda operatives by the thousands have been arrested, detained, or killed. So have many members of the crucial al-Qaeda leadership circle around bin Laden and his chief strategist, Ayman al-Zawahiri. Moreover, Jenkins’s briefer warns, it has become harder for the remaining al-Qaeda leaders to carry out the organization’s most basic functions: “Because of increased intelligence efforts by the United States and its allies, transactions of any type—communications, travel, money transfers—have become more dangerous for the jihadists. Training and operations have been decentralized, raising the risk of fragmentation and loss of unity. Jihadists everywhere face the threat of capture or martyrdom. [My emphasis].
The consensus of experts is that the well-organized, powerful, and international organization that Osama bin Laden managed to build up before Bush became President has been smashed to bits. No reasonable person could argue that we are not safer for that.
This does not mean, of course, that the war has been won. Fallows goes to great lengths to wave flags of caution and to argue that we could let victory slip through our fingers in any number of ways. He is, to say the least, no supporter of the war in Iraq. Many of the experts cited have their quarrels with the way things have been done, as experts tend to do. But the battle since 9/11 has been an overwhelming defeat for al Qaeda. Only someone of flamboyant and invincible ignorance could say that "the Bush administration isn't serious about fighting terrorism." Or put differently, if Bush could accomplish this without even being serious about it, he is a greater genius than either Chad or I suspect.
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