I have argued that the solution to the problem of illegal immigration ought to include two things: 1) the borders must be brought under control, not so that immigration should be halted, but so that it should be reduced to manageable levels; and 2) that the illegal population in the U.S. should be put on a reasonable path to legalization. I submit that, were both these things accomplished, almost all the problems connected with illegal immigration would be remedied.
Its becoming increasingly clear that the Senate bill would do too little of the former, and would be far too generous with regard to the latter. Robert Samuelson has this, from Real Clear Politics:
The Senate last week passed legislation that Sen. Edward Kennedy, D-Mass., hailed as ``the most far-reaching immigration reform in our history.'' You might think that the first question anyone would ask is how much it would actually increase or decrease legal immigration. But no. After the Senate approved the bill by 62 to 36, you could not find the answer in the news columns of The Washington Post, New York Times or Wall Street Journal. Yet, the estimates do exist and are fairly startling. By rough projections, the Senate bill would double the legal immigration that would occur during the next two decades from about 20 million (under present law) to about 40 million.
Samuelson notes the political weight of this estimate:
It is interesting to contrast these immigration projections with a recent opinion survey done by the Pew Research Center. The poll asked whether the present level of legal immigration should be changed. The response: 40 percent favored a decrease, 37 would hold it steady and 17 percent wanted an increase. There seems to be scant support for a doubling. If the large immigration projections had been in the news, would the Senate have done what it did? Possibly, though I doubt it.
Samuelson does not note other provisions of the bill, such as providing for immigrants to be paid union wages, thus putting them in a position better than many native born workers. Such was necessary to secure Democratic support.
It seems very unlikely that anything like the Senate bill will pass the House. Perhaps in conference there will be some sensible compromise, but at this stage I wouldn't count on it.
The Democrats hold very good cards. The swelling illegal population promises future Democratic voters, and a failed attempt by the Republicans to control immigration is likely to alienate Hispanic voters while at the same time discouraging the Republican base. If the Republicans can't solve the immigration problem, then it can't be solved. Right now, it looks like they can't.
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