Political scientists have known for a long time that the relative size and behavior of demographic subgroups, like African Americans or evangelical Christians, has a lot more to do with who wins elections than candidates and campaign strategies. Peter Brown of the
Republicans have won seven of the past 10 presidential elections. They have held control of Congress for most of the past decade.
Every four years, it seems, the Democratic establishment finds another way to explain why they have lost without conceding the obvious. They are unable to win enough votes from the largest demographic group -- white, mostly middle-class, voters to get over the top. John Kerry won about 41 percent of white votes in 2004, broke even among voters with family incomes of $30,000-$50,000 and got just 44 percent of those with incomes of $50,000-$100,000.
This is a 40-year pattern, which has led Democrats to seek a way around, rather than to confront, their problem with Middle America. In the 1970's, the Democrats courted the counter-culture. In the 1980s the push was among African-Americans. Jesse Jackson's two runs for the White House, Democrats hoped, would spur an outpouring of black voters. In the 1990s, the gender gap was the rage, and in fact Bill Clinton's presidencies were fueled disproportionately by women voters.
In 2004, their focus was on young voters who would be so put off by the Iraq war they would turn out in droves to throw W out of office. It didn't happen. Bush was re-elected, even though more young people voted. But the Democratic turnout effort created a climate in which the Republicans energized even more of their troops.
Now, Democratic strategists have settled on unmarried voters for 2006 and 2008.
I think he is being a bit unfair to the Democrats. It is almost always easy to increase turnout among voters already inclined to vote for you, than to swing previously hostile groups to your side. To be sure, groups do sometimes change sides, as African Americans went from being loyal Republicans to become the most thoroughly Democratic group in America. But that results from deep structural changes in society, and is not easily accessible to campaign strategies.
Nonetheless, it is a good idea for Republicans to wonder how they can attract more Black voters. Even a small increase in Republican support among African Americans would make a big difference in elections, all the way down to dog catcher. Likewise, Democrats should wonder how they can get more votes from "married, with children."
Women's Voices has produced an 80-plus page report being embraced throughout the party that correctly notes that unmarried people are less likely to vote than their married counterparts. In 2004, Bush carried the 63 percent of voters who were married by a 57-42 percent margin. He lost among the 37 percent who were single by 58-40 percent. . . .
No Democratic presidential candidate since Lyndon Johnson has won a majority of white voters. Yet even in an increasingly diverse America, and despite increasing voting participation by minorities, whites were still 77 percent of 2004 voters.
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