The dean of American election analysis, Michael Barone, publishes a piece in US News about the future of the congressional Republican Party. Barone believes that despite current GOP angst over the unpopularity of Congress, the nation's states and congressional districts may be more Republican than currently represented in Washington. There is a South Dakota reference in his article. Also notice that Democratic election experts Carville and Greenberg agree with this blog that the Democrats have little positive to add to the national debate, at least on Social Security.
The implications? In the long run, Republicans are well positioned to increase their numbers in both the Senate and the House. Some Democrats hold seats because of personal popularity or moderate voting records. But when they retire, Republicans may well succeed them. In the short run, very few Republicans run great political risks by supporting Bush. Significantly more Democrats run great political risks by opposing him. Obstruction doesn't work well for Democrats in Bush seats: Just ask former Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle. And at the moment, on Social Security, as Democrats Stan Greenberg and James Carville wrote last month, "Voters are looking for reform, change, and new ideas, but Democrats seem stuck in concrete."
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