In a previous post I discussed John McIntyre's argument that current Democratic attacks on Bush play right into his hands. According to McIntyre, Republicans have a natural advantage on issues involving international security, and as long as the spotlight is on those issues, they win. I believe I first heard this argument from Dick Morris during a speech he gave (I heard it on public radio) during the 2004 presidential campaign. Morris argued that to win, Kerry had to get the discussion off the topic of Iraq and onto domestic issues like health care, where Democrats have the advantage. I thought that was a plausible reading of the strategic topography of that election, and the outcome surely looks like confirmation. McIntyre's piece begins this way:
The political pendulum is swinging back towards President Bush. The President’s approval rating has a pattern of dipping when he takes his Crawford vacation every August then bouncing back in September upon his return to Washington. This year, however, beginning with Cindy Sheehan, followed by Katrina, Harriet Miers, the Fitzgerald investigation, and the negative drip-drip-drip of reporting out of Iraq, Bush’s job approval continued to drop into the beginning of November.
The last days in October laid the ground work for the President’s turn around. The Miers withdrawal and subsequent nomination of Samuel Alito staunched the bleeding from a large part of Bush’s base, and the sole indictment from Special Prosecutor Patrick Fitzgerald removed a major distraction for the White House. (At least that is the way the Fitzgerald inquiry looks today, barring any future, unexpected indictment(s).) With the foundation laid, the White House launched a political counter-attack on Veterans Day with a speech by President Bush directly criticizing his opponents for rewriting the history of how the war in Iraq began.
During the last several months Bush's critics celebrated his low poll numbers like Superbowl winners dumping ice on one another. We here at SDP maintained a nervous silence on the topic. Now, however, McIntyre seems to be right. Bush's poll numbers are hardly spectacular, but they are clearly improving in a number of major polls. This from the Washington Post:
President Bush's approval rating has surged in recent weeks, reversing what had been an extended period of decline, with Americans now expressing renewed optimism about the future of democracy in Iraq, the campaign against terrorism and the U.S. economy, according to the latest Washington Post-ABC News Poll.
Bush's overall approval rating rose to 47 percent, from 39 percent in early November, with 52 percent saying they disapprove of how he is handling his job. His approval rating on Iraq jumped 10 percentage points since early November, to 46 percent, while his rating on the economy rose 11 points, to 47 percent.
That's still a bit of a deficit in overall job approval, but its a lot better than two to one disapproval. Its interesting to see that Bush's numbers on the economy saw the largest improvement. I suspect this has little to do with any economic news or the actual state of the economy. Its just that when a Republican president wins on his strength, he tends to do better across the board. The ABC/WaPo poll shows that this is where the rebound is coming from.
A clear majority, 56 percent, said they approve of the way Bush is handling the fight against terrorism -- a traditional strong point in his reputation that nonetheless had flagged to 48 percent in the November poll.
Bush is hardly out of the woods yet, and a lot depends on how things go in Iraq. But there is little doubt that Bush's counter-offensive has been effective. Democrats continue to enjoy better poll numbers on issues raised in the abstract, but their underlying weakness is evident from the poll.
Sixty percent said the United States is making significant progress in restoring civil order in Iraq, a 26-point increase since November, and 65 percent said the United States is making significant progress in establishing a democratic government there. Almost three in four (71 percent) said last week's election brought the country closer to the day when U.S. forces can be withdrawn.
More than half the country (52 percent) said they favor decreasing the number of troops in Iraq, a five-percentage-point increase since early November. But far fewer of those anxious to bring troops home are calling for a speedy exit. Just 12 percent of those surveyed said they favor immediate withdrawal, down from 18 percent in November, whereas 40 percent said they favor a gradual withdrawal, up from 29 percent in November. Just over a third said they favor keeping troop levels where they are now.
A solid majority (60 percent) agree with Bush on his opposition to setting a timetable for withdrawing forces, whereas 31 percent would like to see all U.S. troops removed by the end of next year. The poll also found Americans slightly more receptive to a candidate for Congress next year who opposes a timetable than to one who supports a timetable.
For better or worse, Bush's strategy is playing pretty well. The poll also suggests why.
Americans still express doubts about aspects of Bush's handling of Iraq. Sixty percent said they do not believe he has adequately explained why the United States is in Iraq, and almost the same percentage said the administration does not have a clear plan for success there. But even more Americans (74 percent) said the Democrats in Congress do not have a plan either.
Bush has a way to go as far as public confidence in his overall strategy is concerned. But just right now he is winning on the details.
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