That, I say with considerable reluctance, is my judgment on the Harriet Miers nomination. Part of my reluctance comes from the fact that Powerline and Hugh Hewitt have been defending Miers. Hewitt is an authoritative voice in the conservative blogosphere, and I almost never disagree with Powerline. Like HH, I am inclined to trust Bush's personal evaluation of Miers as a solid vote to back up the judicial restraint wing of the court. But that inclination is not all that strong, and therein lies the problem.
Bush has clearly alienated large parts of his political base, and that is a very costly thing to do when your approval ratings are in the high thirties. Moreover he has reinforced the view left over from the Katrina mess that he appoints unqualified cronies to positions of power. That view may be unfair, but just right now that doesn't matter. Miers may be the next John Marshall for all I know, but she certainly doesn't look well-qualified to set on the high court. Worst of all, perhaps, Bush has squandered the political capital gained from the Roberts nomination. Many liberal voices had had to praise that nomination, and a consensus was forming that a conservative political perspective and judicial philosophy were not grounds for rejected a nominee. Bush was in an excellent position to nominate a strong judicial conservative.
Now consider the position that Bush has put his Senate allies in. The Democrats are observing a remarkably disciplined silence right now, and who can blame them? Let the Conservatives tear at their leader. But I suspect that they will inevitably try to defeat the nomination. They can't be any more sure about Miers than the Republicans are, and handing George Bush a defeat is always attractive. If Senate Republicans are to come to Bush's aid, they must do so without any conviction that they are doing the right thing by the court. Asking them to spend political capital in such a business is intolerable.
If I had to guess, I'd guess that the Miers nomination is going down. Whatever kind of judge she would make, she is showing no signs of being a strong candidate. She is said to be cramming full time for the Senate hearings, but this apparently means learning constitutional law from scratch in a matter of weeks. This is nuts.
It will be against his every instinct, but Bush should withdraw the nomination. Then he can go back to the drawing board. There are lots of good candidates. But he will be in a weaker position next time round.
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