If I were a left-wing ideologue who reads all news through the prism partisanship, I might try to make some hay out of today's report on the rise in poverty. But luckily I am not an ideologue and I also know where to find poverty statistics from the US Census Bureau. The rise in the annual poverty rate is a minuscule .2%, from 12.5 to 12.7. If one looks at historical averages 12.7% is pretty good. If one looks at the last 20 years of data the average annual poverty rate is 13.23. If one takes the years of Bush budgets (2002-2004) the average yearly rate is 12.73. If one looks at the eight years of Clinton budgets (1994-2001) the average annual rate is 12.86. Considering there was a recession that the analysts now agree started before Bush even became president, and it certainly occurred in 2001 before any Bush policy was in place, the Bush numbers look even better. As Prof. Blanchard noted a while back, the nation's employment numbers are strong. Overall the economy is growing at a strong pace, creating a flood of revenues that have caused the Congressional Budget Office to readjust the FY 2005 (our present fiscal year) budget deficit down by $100 billion. The CBO says that we are well on our way to achieving Bush's goal of halving the deficit by FY 2009. Yes there are structural deficit problems. See the chart below. Entitlements are going to start swallowing up huge chunks of the budget. The Democratic solution? Do nothing and then try to demagogue for advantage in 2006 elections. There were once Democrats like John Breaux and Daniel Patrick Moynihan whom one could reason with on these matters. But the statesmen are gone while those who rule simply worry about the next election.
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