Mr. Clean Cut Kid directs us to this Quinnipiac University survey showing that by a 61-31 margin Americans support upholding Roe v. Wade. I guess Chad isn't reading this site too closely, because just a few days ago I anticipated just this kind of poll toward the end of this long post. Chad thinks this poll shows American support for abortion, and then says 57% of Americans support abortion in all or most cases.
Let's parse those numbers. Chad says 57% support abortion in all or most cases. The actual numbers show that 20% favor abortion in all cases, 37% in most, 24% say abortion should be illegal in most cases, and then 12% say illegal in all cases. That 73% who say abortion should be illegal in some cases. If you know the language of Roe and its companion case Doe v. Bolton, then you see the point I made in my previous post. Roe v. Wade along with Doe v. Bolton de facto set up a regime of abortion on demand for all nine months of pregnancy. Thus 61% may say they support Roe, but their own opinions about the legality of abortion tell you that a) they don't know what Roe does, and b) their actual policy views are contradicted by Roe.
Why do women have abortions? I draw from this report (pdf alert) from Planned Parenthood's Alan Guttmacher Institute. 3/4ths say that they are having abortions because the baby would "interfere with work school or other responsibilities." About 2/3rds say they cannot afford a child. About 1/2 say they do not want to be a single parent or are having problems with their husband/boyfriend. The vaunted "rape and incest" exception amounts to 13,000 abortions a year, or 1% of all abortions. I am trying to find recent data on public opinion about which abortions people say are justified. I can't find anything just now online (please pass along if you find anything), but here's some data I do have handy from Before The Shooting Begins that is probably 15 years old. I suspect it is still largely accurate. I won't bore you with details, but the following reasons get below 30% saying "abortion is acceptable in the first three months": the family has a very low income/it would create a financial burden; the pregnancy would require a teenager to drop out of school; the pregnancy would interupt a professional woman's career; abortion is being used as a repeated means of birth control. I note that this what people think about the first three months of pregnancy when opinion is naturally most permissive. A summation of a book (scroll down) with a comprehensive look at public opinion on abortion concludes:
But a majority of Americans do want abortion to be restricted. Majorities in the norc surveys consistently opposed abortion for low-income women who couldn’t afford any more children, married women who didn’t want to have any more children, or unmarried women who didn’t want to marry their partners.
The upshot is most people oppose most abortions. Also, people are ignorant as to the central holdings of Roe v. Wade, since in its effect Roe allows for no proscription of any abortion for any reason for all nine months of pregnancy. This Quinnipiac poll means next to nothing, and it certainly does not mean what Chad thinks it means.
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