From today's Wall Street Journal Political Diary:
Battle of the Badlands
Tom Daschle's defeat last November naturally created nervousness among other Great Plains Democrats who are facing reelection battles in "crimson" states where Mr. Bush won by 20 points or more. And perhaps none more so than North Dakota Senator Kent Conrad: It now appears likely that he will be challenged by popular GOP Gov. John Hoeven, setting up another multi-million dollar referendum on Democratic obstructionism in the Senate.
Normally, Mr. Conrad would have little to worry about. The former tax commissioner won re-election in 2000 with 62%, the same percentage George W. Bush carried the state by. But Mr. Conrad knows full well that Tom Daschle won re-election with 62% in 1998, only to lose to Republican John Thune, a Bush favorite, six years later. Mr. Conrad also knows that his potential challenger, Mr. Hoeven, won a second term last November with an even more impressive 71%.
The White House was able to convince Mr. Thune to run for Senate last year, and now is turning on the charm to convince Mr. Hoeven that he should move to Washington as a Senator. Last week, the president had both Mr. Hoeven and Mr. Conrad on Air Force One as he jetted to Fargo for a rally in support of his Social Security plan. You can be sure that the president spent more face time with Mr. Hoeven than with Mr. Conrad, a consistent critic of White House policies.
For his part, Mr. Hoeven is keeping mum about his plans. His spokesperson says, "The governor is focused on his job. He's just not going to talk about [a Senate race]." Nonetheless, friends and former aides of Mr. Hoeven tell me he has more or less made up his mind to challenge Mr. Conrad. But he's also looking for a way to make it clear to voters that he won't neglect his duties as governor if he also runs for the Senate.
If Mr. Hoeven runs, national political reporters will relish covering a high-stakes slugfest. North Dakota's 640,000 people, on the other hand, would face such an avalanche of political commercials that many might be tempted to swear off TV for the duration.
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