South Dakota Politics

Ronald Reagan

President Reagan died today. The strongest memory I have of him was his dramatic "Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall" speech in 1987, when I was eleven years old. His bold leadership has influenced and inspired generations of conservatives, including me. May he rest in peace.

Herseth and "energy week"

Next week, there will be a debate on the energy bill on the House floor, according to a UPI story headlined "Hill Republicans to push energy strategy." It will be interesting to watch Stephanie Herseth's participation in that debate. Last fall, the energy bill came within 2 votes of passage in the Senate, but failed due in part to Tom Daschle's refusal to use his vaunted clout to gather the extra Democratic votes needed for the energy bill to pass.

Independent Voice Watch

Stephanie Herseth rode to victory largely on her claim to be an "independent voice" for South Dakota:

"We are South Dakotans first, not Democrats or Republicans," Herseth told several members of that group Friday at her Sioux Falls headquarters.

"They want their representative to be an independent voice because South Dakotans are independent folks. You won't have any doubt whose side I'm on," she said.

Now the AP has this report:

In a release, the National Republican Congressional Committee criticized Herseth, D-S.D., for her first vote in Washington.

Herseth voted against HR444, the Back to Work Incentive Act of 2003, which would give eligible unemployed workers up to $3,000 to use for job training and other services that help them get back to work.

''Representative Herseth forgot who elected her,'' said Carl Forti, NRCC communications director. ''It's sad to say, but with her very first vote, we see Stephanie is more concerned with appeasing the liberals who got her elected than delivering needed help for South Dakotans.''

The bill, strongly backed by the Bush administration, passed the House 213-203 and now heads to the Senate, where its future is uncertain.

You can access the roll call vote on HR444 HERE. For all roll call votes this session, click HERE.

More on the NYT correction

After notifying the New York Times of their error in the headline of this story, I received the following e-mail today from the NYT's Bill Borders:

You are right. That was an embarrassing error about South Dakota, and I wish we had not made it. We published a correction. But we know that a correction never quite catches up to the original error, which is why we try so hard to get things right in the first place.

Thanks so much for writing, and for holding us to a high standard.

Best, Bill Borders, The New York Times.

NYT correction

The New York Times has the following correction in today's edition:

An article yesterday about the election of Stephanie Herseth to the House of Representatives from South Dakota cited a precedent erroneously. Ms. Herseth, a Democrat, was not the first woman elected to Congress from her state. Gladys Pyle won a special election to the Senate in 1938 and served two months.

Note that in the online story, the NYT has the phrase "Correction Appended" posted prominently. This is quite a contrast to the Argus Leader's behavior on corrections, simply slipping in a correction without duly noting it.

Special election roundup II

This AP photo is paired with the story headlined "South Dakotan Sworn in As New House Member."

The New York Times has a story by Stephen Kinzer with this wildly inaccurate headline: "The Voters in South Dakota Send a Woman to Washington for the First Time." No, Gladys Pyle was the first woman South Dakota voters sent to Washington. Kinzer really grasps at straws trying to relate the Iraq issue to the Herseth victory. Did you get the sense that Herseth's win was an indication of dissatisfaction with Bush's handling of the war in Iraq, notwithstanding the fact that Herseth at least says she wholeheartedly supports Bush on the issue? Well, that's the sense you were supposed to get.

The Hill has a story headlined "Herseth wins Ag seat."

The Weekly Standard has a piece headlined "South Dakota Surprise."

1,000 unique hits today

My hit-counter is reflecting over 1,000 unique hits today. SDP readership keeps growing because the South Dakota political scene is so darned interesting. As the New York Times recently stated, South Dakota is at the epicenter of the fight for control of the House and Senate. Count on the Dakota Alliance to continue bringing you information from an alternative perspective on the ground in South Dakota as the campaigns heat up.

FLASHBACK

Chuck Neubauer, Richard T. Cooper and Judy Pasternak, all of the Los Angeles Times, were recently named finalists for the Goldsmith Investigative Reporting Prize for their series titled "The Senators' Sons" about lobbyist family members of lawmakers. The award is given each year by Harvard's Shorenstein Center on the Press, Politics & Public Policy.

You can read the two-part series HERE and HERE. The first part of the series briefly discussed Linda Daschle's lobbying activity, as well as that of Tom Daschle's daughter-in-law. Jeff Gannon broke this story days before the LAT published its series. No award for Jeff, though.

Last summer, when these stories were published in the LAT, the Argus Leader initially balked at following up the story. To its credit, the AL finally published the LAT story on the page A1 of a Sunday edition.

Almost six months later, it was discovered that the AL had doctored the LAT story to make it less damaging to Tom Daschle.

Of course, the AL has taken to doctoring its online edition to reflect an important correction, while to this day failing to publish the correction in any hard copy edition of its paper.

DVT on the Herseth victory

DVT has several interesting posts regarding the Herseth victory. As DVT writes, its amazing that an unknown farmer could come so close to beating a familiar face like Herseth in so short of a span of time.

Hemingsen on the special election

Don't miss South Dakota television icon Steve Hemingsen's analysis of the special election.

Special election roundup

The AP has a story headlined "Democrat Wins Election for Janklow's Seat." Excerpt:

"We ran a positive, truthful campaign based on issues, not negative attacks," Herseth, 33, told a room of cheering, chanting supporters early Wednesday.

Non-partisan political analyst Stuart Rothenberg disagrees.

Reuters has a story headlined "Democrat Wins South Dakota House Race."

The Christian Science Monitor has a piece headlined "Democrats see opportunity to win back House."

NPR has an interesting analysis by Ken Rudin of candidates who lose the special election but then turn around and win the general election.

Minnesota Public Radio has a piece headlined "Herseth wins South Dakota's special congressional election."

Local ABC affiliate KSFY has a story headlined "Diedrich concedes"

NYT on Daschle

Via the NYT: "Could Herseth's Victory in South Dakota Hurt Daschle?"

The Hill: "Dems look beyond Daschle"

The Hill, a DC publication, has a story in today's edition headlined "Dems look beyond Daschle." This is a significant story, coming on the heels of Stephanie Herseth's victory. Herseth's victory just made it less likely that Daschle will be re-elected. As Larry Sabato said, a Herseth victory is bad news for Daschle.

By the way

See this late development.

Election results

The South Dakota Secretary of State's office has begun posting results from today's special election. With six precincts reporting, Diedrich leads 56%-44%. Stay tuned for updates...

UPDATE at 8:12PM: Herseth takes the lead, 52-48 with 20 precincts reporting...

UPDATE at 8:18PM: Herseth's lead widens, 54-46 with 40 precincts reporting...

UPDATE at 8:22PM: Minnehaha County (most populous county in SD) precincts starting to report, Herseth lead widens further 56-44 with 71 precincts reporting...

UPDATE at 8:26PM: The AP's Joe Kafka reports Herseth has an early lead. Herseth at this time leads 56-44 with 81 precincts reporting...

UPDATE at 8:31: Herseth's lead narrows to 55-45 with 106 precincts reporting...

UPDATE at 8:38: Herseth's lead narrows another point, 54-46 with 120 precincts reporting...

UPDATE at 8:46: Herseth's lead narrows yet another point, 53-47 with 156 precincts reporting. Union and Tripp counties have nearly all precincts reporting, in Tripp Diedrich leads with 56%, in Union, Diedrich leads with 51%.

UPDATE at 8:57: Herseth leads 53-47 with 203 precincts reporting. The DCCC's blog has pics of Herseth at the Sheraton in Sioux Falls.

UPDATE at 9:01: More Minnehaha precincts reporting, Herseth leads in Minnehaha 57-43. Herseth leads 53-47 with 212 precincts reporting.

UPDATE at 9:05: Herseth's lead narrows again, 52-48 with 242 precincts in. Diedrich handily wins Tripp County with 56%.

UPDATE at 9:11: Herseth ahead 52-48 with 279 precincts in. Diedrich handily wins in Campbell County with 67%. Herseth is winning in Clay County with 64%.

UPDATE at 9:22: Herseth increases lead back to 53-47, and handily wins Buffalo County, home of the Crow Creek Indian Reservation, with 81%.

UPDATE at 9:30: Herseth lead back to 52-48 with 343 precincts reporting. Watching for West River returns now....

UPDATE at 9:37: Herseth lead at 52-48 with 402 precincts reporting. Jay Reding also is keeping track of the polling. It's a 50-50 tie in Charles Mix County, home of the Yankton Sioux Indian Reservation.

UPDATE at 9:49: Herseth leads at 52-48 with 414 precincts reporting. Diedrich behind in Minnehaha 54-46 with 50 of 69 precincts reporting. Union County has a 50-50 tie with all precincts reporting. Diedrich leads in Lincoln County 52-48 with 14 of 21 precincts reporting. Meade County in the Black Hills shows Diedrich leading 52-48 with 10 of 37 precincts reporting.

UPDATE at 9:57: Herseth lead narrows to 51-49 with 476 precincts reporting. Pennington County (second most populous county in SD and reliably Republican) returns starting to come in. Diedrich leads in Pennington 52-48 with 10 of 42 precincts reporting. No returns posted yet from Shannon and Todd Counties, respectively the home of the Pine Ridge Indian Reservation and the Rosebud Indian Reservation. More pics available at DCCC's blog.

UPDATE at 10:11: Herseth lead at 51-49 with 567 precincts reporting.

UPDATE at 10:17: Herseth lead still at 51-49 with 579 precincts reporting. No precincts have reported from Butte, Custer, Hanson, Roberts, Stanley, Shannon, and Todd Counties.

UPDATE at 10:23: Herseth lead still at 51-49 with 588 precincts reporting. Nobody has called this baby yet.

UPDATE at 10:26: Herseth lead still at 51-49 with 604 precincts reporting. All but one Minnehaha precinct has reported, with Diedrich behind in that county 54-46. Diedrich is ahead in Pennington though, 53-47 with 14 of 42 precincts reporting.

UPDATE at 10:32: Herseth lead still at 51-49 with 618 precincts reporting. Pennington County precincts are starting to pour in, and Diedrich leads in that county 55-45 with 23 of 42 precincts reporting. The Pennington County results could put Diedrich over the top, but the reservation counties of Shannon and Todd would put Herseth back on top. So far no precinct from Shannon or Todd has reported.

UPDATE at 10:42: Herseth in lead, 51-49 with 656 precincts reporting. MyDD does the math and says Herseth is going to win.

UPDATE at 10:50: Herseth in lead, 51-49 with 688 precincts reporting. Pennington County returns continue to come in, Diedrich leads there 56-44 with 29 of 42 precincts reporting.

UPDATE at 11:00: Herseth leads 51-49 with 691 precincts reporting. A reader asks what my source is for the numbers. All of the numbers come from the Secretary of State's website, which is updated every 5 minutes.

UPDATE at 11:07: Herseth leads 51-49 with 700 precincts reporting. Only 98 more to go. Still no precincts reporting from Butte, Hanson, Shannon, and Todd Counties.

UPDATE at 11:14: Herseth leads 51-49 with 703 precincts reporting. Jay Reding begins analyzing the ramifications of this election on the Senate race in South Dakota.

UPDATE at 11:31: Herseth leads 51-49 with 714 precincts reporting. I think that Zogby poll conducted on the race two weeks ago was bunk.

UPDATE at 11:41: Herseth leads 51-49 with 733 precincts reporting. MyDD says Herseth may be making an appearance shortly.

UPDATE at 11:53: It's at 50-50, with Herseth leading by 2098 votes, and 758 precincts reporting. This is the worst of all possible outcomes for Tom Daschle. Herseth winning, making an all-Democratic delegation (something ticketsplitting South Dakotans don't want), but only winning by the slimmest of margins. This summer will be a barnburner of a campaign for both House and Senate.

UPDATE at 12:02: It's back to Herseth leading 51-49, with 765 precincts reporting. Shannon County precincts, home of the Pine Ridge Indian Reservation, just started reporting, with 95% of the votes going to Herseth. Wow.

UPDATE at 12:21: Jay Reding calls it a Pyrrhic victory for the Democrats. Well said. I'm off to bed.

Sabato: South Dakotans don't want to be represented by three Democrats in DC

SDP reader Reb Wayne sends along the following e-mail he recently received from Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics:

Dear Mr. Wayne,

Thanks for this. Just yesterday, I talked to several key SD reporters and activists. They were unanimous in believing that Herseth would win. They may be unanimously wrong, but I'll stick with the home folks! I also say that if Herseth wins, it's actually bad news for Daschle. South Dakotans don't want to be represented by three Democrats in DC. One is going to have to go---either Herseth in November or Daschle. That's my guess, anyway.

As for the TX races, I'm with you. My team is more cautious. I'm forwarding your comments to them. I'll personally be very surprised if more than one of the endangered TX Dems wins in November.

Best wishes,
Larry Sabato

(Emphasis added.)

The Hill: Diedrich effectively conceding defeat

Tom Daschle's re-election prospects are officially in jeopardy. The Hill, a Capitol Hill publication, has a story just published for tomorrow's edition headlined "Narrow loss will do, says Diedrich in S.D." Excerpt:

Republican congressional hopeful Larry Diedrich is effectively conceding defeat in today’s South Dakota special House election before the polling booths even open....

Pointing out that he was 30 points behind Herseth when he entered the race in late January, Diedrich said that as his name recognition has jumped, so have his poll numbers.

What matters, Diedrich said, is that South Dakotans see that momentum is on his side. If he loses by a narrow margin, he added, voters will think the June 1 election came too soon....

The piece discusses the ramifications of a Herseth win on Tom Daschle's re-election prospects:

Still, there might be some truth to a theory bandied about by Republicans that Daschle doesn’t want Herseth to win, said Sharon Stroschein, the Democratic National Committeewoman for South Dakota.

According to this reasoning, Daschle will have an easier time winning a fourth term if the congressional delegation is not all Democratic. Otherwise, the thinking goes, Thune can make the case to voters that they need a Republican in Washington to make sure South Dakotans have the ear of the GOP-controlled Congress and the White House.

“I’m sure [Thune] would use that argument, and I’m sure it would work to some degree,” Stroschein said. “I’m sure the Daschle people have to be thinking about that.”

It looks like my dad, the cold-eyed analyst, is right, as usual, as seen by this piece in a recent edition of the Washington Times:

"I see her winning, number one. Number two, she's a bright new face. That violates a lot of the political knowledge in South Dakota. Certainly, her opponent has got more experience," said Ron Van Beek of South Dakota-based American Public Opinion.

But see my dad's quote in an earlier edition of the Washington Times:

Ron Van Beek, president of American Public Opinion Survey and Market Research, based in South Dakota, said Mr. Frist's visit is a bigger deal in Washington than in South Dakota.

"It is, really. Even [Mr.] Bush himself doesn't pull that many voters towards Thune because politics is local in South Dakota," he said.

He said the election's backdrop will be set after the June 1 special election to fill South Dakota's sole congressional seat. Democrat Stephanie Herseth is leading the race against Republican Larry Diedrich and, if she wins, South Dakota will have an entirely Democratic congressional delegation.

"If she wins, then many of those people who would probably vote for Daschle — Republicans — would probably vote for Thune," Mr. Van Beek said.