Charlie Cook: Daschle's re-election bid now a toss-up

Political analyst Charlie Cook has a piece today headlined "Shell Game" discussing, among other things, Senator Daschle's re-election bid. Relevant excerpt:

Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle of South Dakota is the only Democratic incumbent whose bid for re-election is now a toss-up. The three-term senator will face former Republican Rep. John Thune, who in 2002 came within 524 votes of ousting freshman Democratic Sen. Tim Johnson.

Democrats argue that Daschle will be a much tougher opponent for Thune than Johnson was. They point out that Daschle has a very long record of delivering for the state. Republicans contend, though, that as party leader, Daschle has put the needs of his national party over the needs of the state. They point specifically to the obstructionist tactics Democrats have used since losing control of the Senate. And Republicans will also try to prove that what Daschle does in Washington is very different from what he voices support for when he's back home.

Thune remains a very strong candidate and seems aware of some of the mistakes he made in 2002. He has restructured his campaign team and is working to make in-roads into Native American reservations, where Johnson trounced him. Thune has also worked hard to close the financial gap with Daschle, who had spent about $8.3 million as of mid-May. Daschle has also been on television for more than a year, with ads designed to show that his efforts in the Senate have improved the lives of average South Dakotans. Thune's television advertising began this month with spots featuring his two daughters talking about his record on issues important to South Dakota.

Observers disagree on where this race stands. Daschle supporters say that he has spent the past year building a very solid foundation and enjoys a lead in the low teens. As evidence, they point to a mid-May Zogby International survey that gave Daschle a 52 percent to 39 percent advantage. Republicans contend that the race is much closer. They point to a Mason-Dixon poll, also taken in May, that showed Daschle ahead by just 2 points, 49 percent to 47 percent.

Either way, the South Dakota race should be undeniably close, once Thune's ads go on the air.

The mid-May Zogby International survey that Daschle's supporters are pointing to was demonstrated to be unreliable by the June 1st special election in South Dakota. The Zogby poll showed Stephanie Herseth leading Larry Diedrich 52% to 41%. Herseth barely won that election, beating Diedrich by a whisker, 50.57% to 49.43%. (By the way, I received a flyer from the Herseth campaign today, the first I've seen since the special election.)

I think that Zogby poll has instilled a false sense of security in the Daschle campaign.