Tom Daschle's re-election prospects are officially in jeopardy. The Hill, a Capitol Hill publication, has a story just published for tomorrow's edition headlined "Narrow loss will do, says Diedrich in S.D." Excerpt:
Republican congressional hopeful Larry Diedrich is effectively conceding defeat in today’s South Dakota special House election before the polling booths even open....Pointing out that he was 30 points behind Herseth when he entered the race in late January, Diedrich said that as his name recognition has jumped, so have his poll numbers.
What matters, Diedrich said, is that South Dakotans see that momentum is on his side. If he loses by a narrow margin, he added, voters will think the June 1 election came too soon....
The piece discusses the ramifications of a Herseth win on Tom Daschle's re-election prospects:
Still, there might be some truth to a theory bandied about by Republicans that Daschle doesn’t want Herseth to win, said Sharon Stroschein, the Democratic National Committeewoman for South Dakota.According to this reasoning, Daschle will have an easier time winning a fourth term if the congressional delegation is not all Democratic. Otherwise, the thinking goes, Thune can make the case to voters that they need a Republican in Washington to make sure South Dakotans have the ear of the GOP-controlled Congress and the White House.
“I’m sure [Thune] would use that argument, and I’m sure it would work to some degree,” Stroschein said. “I’m sure the Daschle people have to be thinking about that.”
It looks like my dad, the cold-eyed analyst, is right, as usual, as seen by this piece in a recent edition of the Washington Times:
"I see her winning, number one. Number two, she's a bright new face. That violates a lot of the political knowledge in South Dakota. Certainly, her opponent has got more experience," said Ron Van Beek of South Dakota-based American Public Opinion.
But see my dad's quote in an earlier edition of the Washington Times:
Ron Van Beek, president of American Public Opinion Survey and Market Research, based in South Dakota, said Mr. Frist's visit is a bigger deal in Washington than in South Dakota."It is, really. Even [Mr.] Bush himself doesn't pull that many voters towards Thune because politics is local in South Dakota," he said.
He said the election's backdrop will be set after the June 1 special election to fill South Dakota's sole congressional seat. Democrat Stephanie Herseth is leading the race against Republican Larry Diedrich and, if she wins, South Dakota will have an entirely Democratic congressional delegation.
"If she wins, then many of those people who would probably vote for Daschle — Republicans — would probably vote for Thune," Mr. Van Beek said.
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