Charlie Cook has a column in the National Journal today headlined "South Dakota's Monumental Election." Excerpt:
The Diedrich campaign had a big decision to make about the direction it was going to take over the next few weeks, and it chose to go on the offensive. In the newest ad, Diedrich tells voters he and Herseth "have
promised no personal attacks." But he continues that while they agree on certain issues, like country-of-origin labeling, they disagree on the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts.
Diedrich says he thinks the cuts should be permanent, while Herseth does not. Not surprisingly, Herseth immediately took to the airwaves with a spot charging Diedrich with misleading voters about her position on
taxes. She ends with the tag line: "I approved this message, because I'm committed to a truthful campaign. It's clear that Larry Diedrich is not." It is also unclear if the NRCC will begin to weigh in with its own contrast ads -- and if so, what impact those would have on the contest.
Here is the bottom line: South Dakota's at-large district could have a tighter contest than the public polls have shown. After all, this is a state President Bush won with 60 percent of the vote.
Herseth started the race in a strong position and -- like any front-runner -- tried to dictate the race on her terms. With such a strong start, it was hard to see how Diedrich could catch up with Herseth simply by trusting the Republican lean of the state to carry him through. And with recent polling in South Dakota showing Bush ahead of the presumptive Democratic nominee, Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts, by
just 10 points, it would not do Diedrich much good to try to nationalize this contest. Whether his decision to go on the offensive will help him close the gap remains to be seen. What we do know is that this is going
to be an exciting race to watch for the next few weeks.
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