Charlie Cook in South Dakota

Charlie Cook, arguably the premier political analyst in the country, has a piece today headlined "Power Struggle," in which he briefly discusses the U.S. Senate race in South Dakota. Relevant graf:

The lone vulnerable Democratic incumbent is Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle of South Dakota. In January, Republican former Rep. John Thune announced that he will challenge Daschle. Thune lost his state's 2002 Senate contest by 524 votes. He was considered the only Republican who could give Daschle a very competitive race.

I have to admit I'm a bit red-faced about the fact that Charlie Cook himself was in Pierre, South Dakota last week, and I didn't find out about it until I read Rapid City Journal political reporter Denise Ross' latest column this morning, headlined "Major political players descend on Pierre." And what a column it is! Excerpt:

There will be differences this time, [Charlie Cook] said, and two on which Cook dwelled are likely to Thune's benefit.

First, Thune's campaign team will be better this time around, Cook said.

"The Thune campaign, technically speaking, will be a lot better than it was two years ago," Cook said.

Thune has hired political warrior Dick Wadhams as campaign manager, a choice the Capitol Hill press has described as a nice matchup with the equally extolled Hildebrand.

Second, Daschle is no longer Senate majority leader, and, perhaps worse, the Democrats are expected to lose Senate seats in 2004.

"Last time, they said a vote for Tim Johnson was a vote to keep Tom Daschle as majority leader. The choice was, do you want the majority leader or do you want a Republican senator," Cook said.

In 2002, GOP momentum tipped the balance of power to Republicans but left Daschle a strong minority leader with 48 of 100 seats in the Democratic caucus plus one independent who associates with that caucus.

In 2004, Democrats are expected to slide further in the Senate, Cook said. Republicans are losing two of their incumbent senators compared to five incumbent Democratic senators who are retiring. And four of the Democrats are from what Cook calls the "real South." The other is from Florida.

Cook expects most, if not all, of those Democratic seats to flip to Republicans due to the GOP's advantage in that region.

"Those are very, very hard places for Democrats to defend," Cook said.

With the Daschle-as-power-broker argument diminished, South Dakota voters might make different choices than they did two years ago, Cook said.

"That takes a pretty strong arrow out of the Democratic quiver," Cook said.

(Emphasis added.) I find it incredible that David Kranz, the so-called dean of South Dakota political reporters, despite the presence of so many political players in one place, did not report these events that took place in Pierre last week in his Sunday column, particularly the fact that Charlie Cook himself was in South Dakota. Kranz normally loves to quote the Cook Political Report and often quotes its writers in his pieces.

On January 5, 2004, the day Thune announced his candidacy for the Senate, Kranz quoted the Cook Political Report's Jennifer Duffy in his report on the event. On January 4, 2004, Kranz also quoted Duffy regarding the prospective Thune v. Daschle race. On December 10, 2003, Kranz quoted the Cook Political Report's Amy Walters in a story regarding whether Thune would run for the vacant House seat. On September 21, 2003, Kranz again quoted Walters. On September 14, 2003, Kranz cites the "Cook Report analysis" of a "handful of potentially close Senate races next year." On September 7, 2003, in one of his Sunday columns, Kranz wrote the following:

Senate analysis

Charles Cook, a well-respected national political analyst, assessed the South Dakota Senate race last week and said there are two ways to describe Sen. Tom Daschle:

"He is a tireless advocate for his state, has the kind of seniority in the Senate important to a small state and keeps in close touch with constituents, visiting each of the 66 counties every year.

"Or, he is a liberal Democrat and national spokesman for his party who works to obstruct President Bush's agenda in the Senate, opposed the war with Iraq, and is fundamentally out of step with the state's voters."

But when Charlie Cook himself is IN SOUTH DAKOTA to assess the South Dakota U.S. Senate race, we have yet to hear anything from the dean of South Dakota political reporters about it, or for that matter from any reporter at the Argus Leader. Why is that do you suppose? Could it be because what Cook had to say is damaging to the "Daschle as power-broker" message that is the very foundation of Tom Daschle's campaign? Just asking.