Iowa Straw Poll

New York Times:  "Bucking a ritual for Republican presidential candidates, Rudolph W. Giuliani and Senator John McCain announced Wednesday that they would skip participation in what has been a significant early test of candidate strength, the straw poll in Ames, Iowa, this summer."

Iowa a Sumbling Block for Clinton

See this Associated Press story about a memo leaked from the Clinton campaign:

Memo to Hillary Rodham Clinton: Your deputy campaign manager was right. An internal campaign memo late last month urged the Democratic front-runner to bypass first-up and momentum-generating Iowa because of Clinton's lackluster showing despite drawing large crowds _ a memo she immediately disavowed.    

Yet, the reality from Des Moines to Dubuque lends credence to deputy campaign manager Mike Henry's assessment that for Clinton, Iowa is "our consistently weakest state."

Presidential rival John Edwards has capitalized on the remnants of his 2004 presidential operation in the state, the freedom to visit in the absence of a day job and a fresh populist appeal to grab the lead in recent polls.

Clinton's other top rival, Barack Obama, has drawn large crowds and hired a team of experienced organizers with a deep knowledge of Iowa's arcane caucus system. Even lesser-known candidates Bill Richardson and Chris Dodd have gained some traction with ads on Iowa television.

"If the caucuses were held today, it's fair to say she would probably not win," former state Democratic Party Chairman Gordon Fischer said. "It's going to take a tremendous amount of work to catch up _ it's doable, but it's going to be difficult."

The notion of the Democratic front-runner losing Iowa would jolt the presidential race. The state's last three winners captured the Democratic nomination as Al Gore beat back Bill Bradley's strong challenge in 2000 and John Kerry saw his moribund candidacy revived after his victory in 2004.

Here's the whole story.

Antiwar Hillary in Sioux Center

The Washington Post blog reports that Hillary Clinton is trying to rework her image, glossing over her support of the war and presenting herself as a Midwesterner rather than a New York liberal:

On the campaign trail, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) has stepped up her anti-Iraq war rhetoric. In stops in northwest Iowa on Friday and Saturday, she consistently raised a series of points: She has for two years pushed President Bush to change his Iraq policy, supports a proposal sponsored by Sen. Robert Byrd (D-WV) to deauthorize the war and voted against an emergency supplemental spending bill on Thursday to register her opposition to President Bush's war policy.

"I think it's important for someone like me who has been a strong supporter of the military and has worked hard to try to get our troops everything they need to start saying the best thing we can do is to get them out of the middle of this sectarian civil war in Iraq," Clinton said. Asked in Sioux Center about the first thing she would do as president, Clinton said, "if President Bush, hasn't ended the war in Iraq, I will. That is the first thing I'm going to do."

Clinton's remarks on the campaign trail, of course, leave out a few elements of her record on the war. She voted for the original 2002 authorization. She often opposed efforts in the Senate during 2005 and 2006 to set the kind of timelines for ending the war that she now backs, particularly bills by her fellow Democrats Russ Feingold (Wisc.) and John Kerry (Mass.) that would have set up such deadlines last year. And Clinton, like another 2008 Democratic hopeful, Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.), has in the past voted for supplemental funding bills for the war in Iraq before casting her "no" vote on Thursday.

...

As Clinton campaigns through, Iowa, she's trying to do a complicated thing: Introduce herself to voters while reminding them of the good parts of her past. This introduction -- or reintroduction -- is at times blatant.

A woman most known for her work in Arkansas, Washington and New York, she begins every speech with a reference to her upbringing in a "middle-class family in the middle of the country, Chicago." She notes her father's service in the Navy, and the fact that while her family paid her college tuition, she paid for her books in college and then borrowed to go to law school. (The words "Yale Law" are not used in this pitch).

Read the whole thing.

Obama's Religion

Today's New York Times is exploring Barack Obama's religion:

“He comes from a very secular, skeptical family,” said Jim Wallis, a Christian antipoverty activist and longtime friend of Mr. Obama. “His faith is really a personal and an adult choice. His is a conversion story.”

The grandparents who helped raise Mr. Obama were nonpracticing Baptists and Methodists.

His mother was an anthropologist who collected religious texts the way others picked up tribal masks, teaching her children the inspirational power of the common narratives and heroes. His mother’s tutelage took place mostly in Indonesia, in the household of Mr. Obama’s stepfather, Lolo Soetoro, a nominal Muslim who hung prayer beads over his bed but enjoyed bacon, which Islam forbids.

“My whole family was Muslim, and most of the people I knew were Muslim,” said Maya Soetoro-Ng, Mr. Obama’s younger half sister. But Mr. Obama attended a Catholic school and then a Muslim public school where the religious education was cursory. When he was 10, he returned to his birthplace of Hawaii to live with his grandparents and attended a preparatory school with a Christian affiliation but little religious instruction.

Years later, Mr. Obama met his father’s family, a mix of Muslim and Christian Kenyans. Sarah Hussein Obama, who is his stepgrandmother but whom Mr. Obama calls his grandmother, still rises at 5 a.m. to pray before tending to her crops and the three orphans she has taken in.

“I am a strong believer of the Islamic faith,” Ms. Obama, 85, said in a recent interview in Kenya.

It's an interesting story, so read the whole thing.

Sandlin Endorses Edwards

This Associated Press story reports that Representative Stephanie Herseth Sandlin has endorsed John Edwards for president:

U.S. Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, D-S.D., has endorsed former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards in the 2008 Democratic presidential sweepstakes.

“Our next president needs to understand and prioritize the needs of rural America, including South Dakota. My endorsement of Senator Edwards is based upon his vision for rural states like South Dakota,” Herseth Sandlin said in a statement.

During a visit to Pierre on Friday, the South Dakota congresswoman said she likes his positions on biofuels and on ways to ease poverty.

“He’s not a Johnny-come-lately on biofuels,” Herseth Sandlin said.

“And I think his focus in the last few years on poverty has a particular role to play as it relates to poverty in rural America and poverty in Indian Country, so I like what he stands for.”

Edwards, who served one term in the Senate, was the running mate of Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., who lost the 2004 race to President Bush.

Herseth Sandlin said Edwards has clearly outlined his commitment to rural America through a detailed rural policy plan that mirrors many of her priorities.

On Monday, the Edwards campaign released the details of his Rural Recovery Act, which he said would restore economic fairness and create new jobs and businesses in rural America and help protect rural people and their way of life.

“His recognition of the challenges we face, such as rural health care, and the opportunities we provide, like renewable energy, have earned him my strong and enthusiastic support,” Herseth Sandlin said in a release from the Edwards campaign.

His role in poverty?  This, from a guy whose home is the largest in the county he lives in, and whose haircuts cost $400?  I have nothing against the guy getting rich, and in fact I say good for him.  But when you factor in those two incidents, plus the S Corporation tax shelter, which saved him from paying thousands in Medicare taxes, it makes you look awfully hypocritical when you claim the top one percent is not paying their fair share.  As one Democrat remarked: "It's one thing to be a millionaire, but it's totally tone-deaf to be using Katrina victims while you're putting the finishing touches on your multimillion-dollar mansion."

Kerry Reopens Door for Presidential Run

John Kerry has declared that he is keeping the option open to run for president in a very Kerryesque statement to 9NEWS:

Afterwards, while answering a question from a viewer on the program YOUR SHOW about why he chose not to run, Kerry said he had decided it wasn't the right time.

"Could that change?" Kerry said. "It might. It may change over years. It may change over months. I can't tell you, but I've said very clearly I don't consider myself out of it forever."

Clinton / Obama Donors

The New York Times reports that Hillary Clinton and her supporters, who thought that the 2008 primary race would be a cake walk, are starting to find that's not the case.  Some of her husband's former colleagues are deciding to back Barack Obama instead:

As Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton seeks to reassemble the Democratic money machine her husband built, some of its major fund-raisers have already signed on with Senator Barack Obama.

Among the biggest fund-raisers for Mr. Obama’s campaign are as many as a half-dozen former guests of the Clinton White House. At least two are close enough to the Clintons to have slept in the Lincoln bedroom.

At minimum, a dozen were major fund-raisers for President Bill Clinton. At least four worked in the administration and one, James Rubin, is a son of a former Clinton Treasury Secretary, Robert E. Rubin. About two dozen of the top Obama fund-raisers have contributed to Mrs. Clinton’s Senate campaigns or political action committee, some as recently as a few months ago.

A list of Mr. Obama’s top fund-raisers released Sunday showed the extent to which the Democratic Party establishment, once presumed to back Mrs. Clinton, has become more fragmented and drifted into her rival’s camp, lending the early stages of the Democratic primary campaign the feeling of a family feud. Some of the movement would have been inevitable given Mr. Clinton’s former dominance of the party.

Why is the former First Lady losing ground?  Probably because she's no Bill; she lacks the same charm and charisma that Bill is famous for.  Obama, on the other hand, is a young, fresh face who exudes charm.  It should say something that Obama, who has had all but two years experience in national office and no depth to policy questions, is stripping away Hillary's donors despite her having far more political experience.  The powers of the party are realizing that Hillary isn't inevitable, and Obama, with his rather thin resume, fits better than Hillary. 

GOP Contenders Head to Iowa

From the Washington Post:

What would Abraham Lincoln have thought of the man in a rabbit suit wearing a sign that said, "Varmints Against Mitt"?

It was the annual Lincoln Day Dinner here in Iowa, and the show was back in town. Varmint Man greeted Republican activists as the party's major presidential candidates showed up to speak from the same lectern for the first time.

Most of them had similar messages -- they would be tough on terrorism, they would fight defeatist Democrats, they would keep taxes low, they would tackle illegal immigration. Many rushed to extol Ronald Reagan while barely mentioning President Bush. They kept reassuring each other that it is good to be Republican despite recent polls and political travails.

But with nine of them trying to distinguish themselves from the pack here in this season's opening GOP presidential cattle call, the candidates looked for small ways and large to attract attention.

In a related story, the Washington Times writes about the problems of front-loading the primaries.  Also see this Wall Street Journal op-ed by Fred Thompson about tax cuts.

Hillary's Iraq Problem

Ed Morrissey:  "Hillary Clinton has had a difficult conundrum facing her ever since the beginning of her presidential campaign. Her vote to authorize the use of force against Iraq and Saddam Hussein in October 2002 has the anti-war base revved up to defeat her in favor of a more capitulationist candidate like Barack Obama or John Edwards. She has tried to alternately defend the vote and claim that she was misled as a defense against the activists within her own party. Last night. however, she ran into someone who refused to buy what she's been selling"

AL

Dave Kranz is noting Daschle's presidential rumblings:

Calling on supporters

Sometimes, the wording of the message speaks volumes. A recent e-mail sent to supporters of former Sen. Tom Daschle by Steve Hildebrand, head of Daschle's new leadership PAC, encouraged them to attend the Jefferson Jackson Day Dinner on Nov. 5 in Des Moines.

Iowa's presidential caucus is the first presidential test in the nation, and the opportunity to keynote that event is significant for anyone thinking of running in 2008.

Daschle and Hildebrand played down the significance of the speech, but both have said politicians generally say, "Never say never."

Now, the e-mail: "The Iowa JJ Dinner keynote address has typically been given by a major presidential candidate. This is a truly important event and one that I encourage you to attend in support of Tom."

You decide.

Bud Day and the Swift Boat Vets

The fellow you see pictured here is Bud Day, an alumni of the University of South Dakota School of Law, and the most highly decorated officer since General Douglas MacArthur. Col. Day was Senator John McCain's cellmate in the Hanoi Hilton. In John McCain's book, "Faith of My Fathers," McCain credits Day with saving his life (pg. 200). Today, the Washington Times discusses Bud Day assembling with the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth for one last push against John Kerry before the election:

Snow-haired Bud Day, a 79-year-old former POW, stands at attention. He is wearing a brown leather flight jacket befitting an Air Force major, complemented by the Medal of Honor around his neck. Others have donned "Swift Boat" baseball caps....

Shot down over North Vietnam in 1967, Maj. Day suffered numerous injuries, managed to escape from his prison, walked for two weeks through the jungle eating live frogs before he was recaptured.

He then spent the next six years as a prison cellmate of John McCain, who would become a Republican senator, at the prison the Americans called, with bitter irony, the "Hanoi Hilton." Maj. Day's presence in the room is palpable. Even in a group of decorated war veterans, he stands out as a living legend.

The others sheepishly introduce themselves and are honored just to shake his still-firm hand.

"Kerry betrayed us by telling the people we were committing atrocities," Maj. Day says. "A man who does that is not fit to lead. It's impossible to let this man masquerade as a war hero and someone who has leadership. To imagine this guy who betrayed us becoming president and him being the leader of our armed forces is just unthinkable."

Cheney launches F-bomb on Senate floor, defends it in Sioux City

Vice President Cheney was in Sioux City, IA today (which is a mere 30 miles from Vermillion, SD, where I live) and was unapologetic for cursing at Senator Patrick Leahy earlier this week after Leahy questioned his integrity. Reuters has a story headlined "Cheney Says He Has No Regrets for Cursing Leahy."

Fox News is carrying a transcript of an interview held with Cheney today, in which the F-bomb laced exchange came up. Relevant excerpt:

CAVUTO: All right. Sir, a couple of little issues I want settled, or maybe to get the real skinny on. One was this blowout you had the other day with Senator Patrick Leahy of Vermont. What happened?

CHENEY: Well, I guess you could say we had a little floor debate in the United States Senate.

CAVUTO: I heard it was more than a debate.

CHENEY: Well, I expressed myself rather forcefully, felt better after I had done it.

CAVUTO: All right. Now, did you use the "F" word?

CHENEY: That's not the kind of language I usually use.

CAVUTO: All right, because the reports were that you did.

CHENEY: Yes, that's not the kind of language I ordinarily use. But...

CAVUTO: What did you tell him?

CHENEY: I expressed my dissatisfaction for Senator Leahy.

CAVUTO: Over his comments about you and Halliburton?

CHENEY: No. It was partly that. It was partly — also, it had to do with — he is the kind of individual who will make those kinds of charges and then come after you as though he's your best friend. And I expressed, in no uncertain terms, my views of the — of his conduct and walked away.

CAVUTO: Did you curse at him?

CHENEY: Probably.

(LAUGHTER)

CAVUTO: Do you have any regrets?

CHENEY: No. I said it, and I felt that...

(CROSSTALK)

CAVUTO: So let me understand, he comes up, he sees you, Mr. Vice — he's all nice, shakes your hand. And then what do you do, let into him?

CHENEY: Explain my unhappiness with the way he conducted himself. Ppart of the problem here is, that instead of having a substantive debate over important policy issues, he had challenged my integrity. And I didn't like that. But, most of all, I didn't like the fact that after he had done so then he wanted to act like, you know, everything's peaches and cream.

And I informed him of my view of his conduct in no uncertain terms. And as I say, I felt better afterwards.

Brokaw for Veep?

As the Daschle v. Thune blog reports, Vice President Dick Cheney is in South Dakota today to raise money for John Thune. Speaking of vice-presidents, the Wall Street Journal's John Fund has a column today headlined "A JFK-NBC Ticket?" discussing the possibility of South Dakota's own Tom Brokaw as John Kerry's running mate. Excerpt:

Last year, the New York Observer reported that an ad hoc committee of his media friends, including executives Barry Diller and Howard Stringer along with writers Nora Ephron and Kurt Andersen, "weren't taking no for an answer" when it came to promoting a Brokaw candidacy for president. "He simply is the greatest draft choice you could ever possibly imagine," said Mr. Diller. "He's such a natural on so many levels that I can't imagine how you could create it otherwise. Of course it's absurd, but there it is." Ms. Ephron predicted last year that if Mr. Brokaw changed his mind, "$20 million would come pouring in in about a week." Mr. Brokaw demurred, saying through a spokesman: "I'm not running for anything." But Mickey Kaus of Slate reported last year that Mr. Brokaw remains intensely interested in politics and has thought about running for president.

John Thune, the Republican candidate for U.S. Senate in Mr. Brokaw's home state of South Dakota, agrees. He says Mr. Brokaw has been intrigued by politics ever since his days at the University of South Dakota. "It would be a fascinating out of the box choice," he told me. A South Dakota Democratic state legislator assures me that Mr. Brokaw would be a good ideological fit for Mr. Kerry, with the added advantage that "no one thinks of him as a liberal."