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Monday, July 16, 2012

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duggersd

I first learned from Dick Morris that undecided voters tend to go to the challenger. Given that Obama and Romney are essentially tied, Romney is in a pretty good spot going into election day. Obama does not have a record he can run on. Romney can attack Obama's record, but Obama, like other liberals, makes things up in order to gain traction. It will be interesting to see how things play out when Romney begins advertising in earnest.

larry kurtz

Former NM Gov. Gary Johnson needs to poll at least 15% to participate in debates with President Obama and alleged felon: white, wimpy, wildly unpopular, Willard Romney.

http://www.lvrj.com/news/libertarian-s-johnson-criticizes-obama-romney-in-las-vegas-visit-162435246.html

If Gov. Gary Johnson can gather enough uncommitted and disaffected Ron Paul supporters in South Dakota, having John Thune on the losing ticket in his own state would be the coldest of dishes.

larry kurtz

You guys are in big trouble, Ken: Gov. Romney may be forced to argue his case just to salvage his candidacy at the Republican Convention where John Thune or Jeb Bush could easily emerge as the nominee.

Bill Fleming

Meanwhile, Nate Silver has Obama's electoral vote projected at 298.9 vs Romney at 239.1. If the election were held today, his model has it 305.4 to 232.6. (...an 81% chance of winning.)

I guess if I were pulling for Romney, I'd be looking for a new set of tea leaves, too, KB.

Welcome back, by the way.

Hope you enjoyed your trip.

Did you do anything awesome and righteous?

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

Stan Gibilisco

Bill, I think you're right. Romney comes off as a member of the investor class. That single factor alone will probably keep me from voting for him.

If I, a lifelong Republican with a rigidly conservative fiscal attitude, won't vote for Romney, I think his baboon is broiled.

Not that I'll vote for Obama, either ... but I think Obama will be elected by a surprising electoral margin.

Donald Pay

I'm not sure why the "wrong track" numbers indicate problems for Obama. I'm voting for Obama, and I think the country is on the wrong track. There are a lot of Democrats who think the country has been on the wrong track for a long, long time--thirty or more years, at least since Reagan.

Ken Blanchard

Bill: Thanks. We both want to hear what we want to hear. I note that Silver predicts that Obama will win just over 2% of the popular vote margin. That's mighty thin. A point or two either way will move a lot of electoral votes.

Donald: the right track/wrong track numbers have been very reliable predictors of Presidential elections. As hard as this may be for you to accept, Obama is president now and he is the incumbent. If the voters decide to hold him responsible for the present situation...

Stan: if I have to choose between the investor class and the never challenged to do anything until now class, I choose the former. That would be if I believed in classes, which I do not.

Sevil

If she can get a good bump in Iowa and NH and since we no she will have the funds, Im hoping that she can get in the Top 3 for the first 4 pirramies and then lets see what happens. Since it is not a winner take all anymore, she has a real shot if she can hang in there while others drop out.

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