Let me briefly break blogging silence to commend to readers this post by Nate Silver of the NYT's 538 blog. It gives an effective guide to viewing polls and handicapping the presidential race, at least through mid-summer. One of the most tempting things is to overread data to suit one's prejudices, and Mr. Silver gives us a sober guide on how to avoid that error.
My own view right now is that Mr. Obama holds a slight but sufficient lead. Probably if the election were held today he'd win by 4-6 points. Two addendums to that. An incumbent president who at this point is only marginally ahead has plenty of reason to be sweating. Also, certain fundamentals (economic, presidential approval, right track/wrong track) do not do the president any favors. Still, I cautiously place my bets with Mr. Obama because I think he has a much easier route to 270 electoral votes than does Mitt Romney. Last thought: Once we get well into the summer, pay close attention to Ohio and Pennsylvania. Obama can win without Ohio, but Romney probably (probably!) can't. On the other hand, if Obama is losing Pennsylvania (which has gone Democrat for president since 1992, but has been hit hard by economic slowdown and Obama is not super popular there) that probably means he is losing the election.