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Tuesday, March 13, 2012

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john davidson

Ken - Here is what the WSJ and NBC are reporting:

When Journal/NBC pollsters asked more specifically whether the government should require religious institutions to provide such contraception coverage—including the morning-after pill, which would be covered under the rule—opposition rose further. Americans overall were opposed 49% to 34%, and women were opposed by 46% to 35%.

"These questions provide a pretty good road map for how the Republicans can frame the issue to their advantage," said Jay Campbell, a Democratic pollster who helps conduct the Journal/NBC News survey.

Dude (BO) lost this one. Can't even get the women. Saw this one coming.

Bill Fleming

The poll is most likely an outlier. It happens sometimes:
http://www.pollingreport.com/obama_job.htm

lynn

Well, O's last resort will be to manufacture a crisis in this country, declare martial law, and suspend the election. And don't doubt for a minute he would hesitate to do just that if thought he would lose the election - this is how dictators act and how he has been acting more and more.

duggersd

Or a canary in a mine. Or a trend. What is interesting is this is a NYT/CBS poll. I believe this poll is often weighted heavily towards the Democrats, skewing the results.

Ken Blanchard

Bill: keep a hopin'. You might well be right, but the Times itself pointed out that it was largely confirmed by other polls. There seems little doubt that the President's approval dropped significantly over the last month.

Bill Fleming

Yes, I'm looking for those "other polls" KB. So far, I'm not really seeing it. Gallup took a dip a while back but seems to have come back up (it's usually the least favorable to Obama of all of them). http://www.pollingreport.com/obama_job1.htm The others are as per my link above. http://www.pollingreport.com/obama_job1.htm

larry kurtz

Opinions are like recta: everybody has one, jd. We can debate the merits of a lone wolf murdering civilians to end a foreign war, too.

The NYT poll came across my twitter feed a couple of days ago. The President will destroy whichever smegma producer emerges from the slime to 'challenge' him. It is increasingly evident by the propaganda spewed by the earth hater blogs like the War Toilet postings of late.

Bill Fleming

...forgot to note this, KB. As far as Gallup's polling goes (don't know if we've shared this link before) you can see, by clicking on Jimmy Carter that Obama is now passing him by at this point on the timeline. Also note he's about on track with GWB.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/presidential-approval-center.aspx

larry kurtz

Here's a comment from one of my favorite Blogmorites, jd; succinct as it gets:

http://www.rapidcityjournal.com/app/blogs/politicalblog/?p=9200#comment-404619

Ken Blanchard

Bill: the CBS poll showed a similar dip. Unfortunately, I haven't found a poll with a demographic breakdown similar to the NYT's poll. Gallup is interesting. This is precisely the point where Carter and Bush 41 nosedived. If the NYT poll turned out to be right, it would mirror those events. Is this poll an outlier? I think that it probably is, but if I were part of the President's team I would be sweating bullets over the next month.

The President is doing a bit better in Gallup, with his approval rating slightly above his disapproval, but still below 50%. His rating with independents is only 44%. With Women, he is only at 51%. That's the good news poll!

john davidson

Larry - Not so sure it's the lone wolf, but you will decide.

Ken Blanchard

Dugger: the poll was weighted slightly in favor of registered Democrats/Republicans (296/268), but slightly in favor of Republican primary voters. The question is not the honesty of the poll but whether it is an outlier as Bill is a wishin and a hopin. I suspect that it may be that, but one can hardly be sure.

Bill Fleming

Yup. Best not to make too much of any one poll, tempting as it may be. I'm always intruiged by the Gallup chart, first because, for as long as we've lived, the sample size of past presidential races is really too small to draw anything but spitball comparisons. And second, because what I think I see is evidence that we used to be happier with our presidents in general in past years than we seem to be of late. In other words, approval of presidents in general appears to be trending down. Do you see that too, KB?

Bill Fleming

There's a little graph on the main page here, upper right. Not dispositive of course, but clearly indicative of the poll in question being an outlier. (DuggerSD, that's not the same as being an out and out liar, btw ;^)

Ken Blanchard

I wouldn't get too confident yet, Bill. Obama's numbers in Gallup just flipped negative again.

Bill Fleming

Yeah, I see that KB. Such a chaotic time.
But hey, now that good ol' Joe has started knocking heads together, maybe that will calm down a little.
The big concern for the GOP is most likely the gender gap and the Latino vote, don''t you think?
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-insiders/post/the-gender-gap-is-back/2012/03/15/gIQA54iDFS_blog.html
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-03-16/republicans-seeking-hispanic-votes-risk-backlash-on-immigration

Ken Blanchard

Bill: it looks like both of us are wishin' and hopin'. What I hope is that, after the election, the White House is actually occupied for a change.

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