09 Election Report 2

New Jersey:

Chris Christie has crept back into the lead, narrowly, in late polls.  One expects a lot of independent Daggett's support to break both ways.  Some polls suggest that Corzine may get more benefit.  However, it is unusual for an incumbent to get more than what his polls show.  I am still predicting a Christie victory. 

Virginia.

This one looks to be in the bag for the Republicans, including the Governor's races and the next two highest ranking offices. 

New York 23

The Democratic narrative (hysterical-right Republicans wage civil war against moderates and hijack election) is about to be tested.  One Democratic sponsored poll has conservative Hoffman ahead of Democrat Owens by 17% (51% to 34%). That hardly seems believable, but it is a pretty large sample (1,747) done, again by a Democratic polling group (Public Policy Polling).  Another poll has Hoffman ahead by five.  Paradoxically, a more narrow win would be more impressive.  It would feed the Republican narrative that the enthusiasm and momentum are all on their side.  The way to win big national election victories is to win a lot of close races by narrow margins.