South Dakota Poll: A Bit Premature?

The poll showing Barack Obama with a twelve point lead in South Dakota may have been a bit premature.  A couple things to note.  First, this poll was done before the "clinging to religion" controversy.  Time will tell if that effects voters here in South Dakota.  Second, when one looks at the methodology, the poll is based on a sample size of only 267 South Dakotans.  That's not awful, but it is a fairly small sample size, which explains the six-point margin of error.  The methodology does not tells us whether they screened for likely voters.

Barack Obama won the North Dakota caucuses, so it is reasonable to conclude he is favored in South Dakota.  But one should not put too much stock in this one poll.